Markets3 min read
What the Midterms Mean for the Market
A landslide, but what will its impact on the market be?
Finance
Macro · Markets · Mild irreverenceMacro and markets,
Macro and markets,
explained without
the jargon.
11 year old economist, curious, always with a glass of milk
I write the parts that don't fit in a caption. Deeper dives on inflation, rates, markets and policy — rigorous enough for the econ nerds, readable enough for everyone who just wants to know what's actually going on.
Currently watching
CPI year on year, in percentage points. (October is 0 because data was not collected due to the government shutdown)
18 months. Zero months at target. Here's why 'no landing' can't last.
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Policy4 min read
The Warsh Paradox: Trump's Pick for Lower Rates Keeps Delivering the Opposite
He was nominated to cut. Five months in, he's held rates steady four times, dropped forward guidance entirely, and had FOMC members penciling in a 2026 hike. Here's how to read what he actually does next.
Central Banks
Macroeconomics4 min read
The Reversal: Why Shelter Isn't the Inflation Story Right Now
For years, "blame housing" was the correct inflation take. In 2026, it's backwards.
Inflation
Macroeconomics5 min read
No Landing: Why "Temporary" Might Be the Only Thing Everyone Agrees On
Consumers and businesses now expect inflation to stay elevated — here's what that means, and why a "no landing" can't be the final destination
Central BanksFiscal PolicyInflation
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